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Irak ile Yapılacak Savaşın Ekonomik Sonuçları Ne Olur?

 

     Bu sorunun cevabını 14 kasım'da Amerika'da yayınlanan bir makale ile Beyaz Saray çoktan hesaplamıştı bile! Bu maliyetin ne olduğunu biz de sizinle paylaşmak istedik. Araştırmanın  ingilizce  pdf formatına ulaşmak için   linke tıklayınız!

     Much has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict with Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential costs of a conflict including the postwar expenses that might be required for occupation, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, nation-building, along with the implications for oil markets and macroeconomic activity. It considers two potential scenarios that span the potential outcomes, ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free case to protracted conflict with difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction and occupation. The estimates of the cost to the United States over the decade following hostilities range from $100 billion to $1.9 trillion.

William D. Nordhaus

Yale University, Department of Economics

28 Hillhouse Avenue

Box 208264

New Haven, CT 065200-8264

and NBER

william.nordhaus@yale.edu

 


 
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