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Irak ile Yapılacak Savaşın Ekonomik Sonuçları
Ne Olur?
Bu sorunun cevabını 14 kasım'da Amerika'da
yayınlanan bir makale ile Beyaz Saray çoktan
hesaplamıştı bile! Bu maliyetin ne olduğunu biz de
sizinle paylaşmak istedik. Araştırmanın ingilizce pdf formatına ulaşmak için
linke tıklayınız!
Much has been written
about the national-security aspects of a potential
conflict with Iraq, but there are no studies of
the cost. A review of several past wars indicates
that nations historically have consistently
underestimated the cost of military conflicts.
This study reviews the potential costs of a
conflict including the postwar expenses that might
be required for occupation, humanitarian
assistance, reconstruction, nation-building, along
with the implications for oil markets and
macroeconomic activity. It considers two potential
scenarios that span the potential outcomes,
ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free
case to protracted conflict with difficult and
expensive postwar reconstruction and occupation.
The estimates of the cost to the United States
over the decade following hostilities range from
$100 billion to $1.9 trillion.
William D. Nordhaus
Yale University, Department
of Economics
28 Hillhouse Avenue
Box 208264
New Haven, CT 065200-8264
and NBER
william.nordhaus@yale.edu
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